Crash course in Future Design - OG 1400-125PPW-OG
Future design is an approach used in strategy and policy development. It provides a set of tools to identify and understand drivers of change (events and processes shaping the future) and explore their implications for making current decisions. It is a creative, exploratory process based on divergent thinking, acknowledging complexity of studied problems, and potential uncertainties. Future design does not aim to provide a correct prediction of the future. Instead it gives a possibility to actively shape the future by the informed decisions we make today. A specific example of such an approach are IPCC’s projections of climate change and its diversified consequences (climate change scenarios), that are used for formulation of both state and international climate policies. On the smaller scale, future design can be used in business and in personal development.
Over the course of these classes, students, working in small groups, will prepare a future scenario for a selected topic. Topics connected to Agenda 2030 and SDGs are recommended, yet not obligatory. Only part of these work will be done during the classes. Thus, extra work at home will be necessary (small tasks as homework plus preparation of final presentation).
During the work on future scenarios the following aspects of future design and other related tools will be covered:
1. Future design fundamentals: future – its definition and range, signals and trends of change and how to record them, dynamics of innovation implementation, matrix for future scenarios.
2. System thinking fundamentals: definitions of systems and emergence, connections and interactions between the elements of the system, feedback loops, mapping the system.
3. Stakeholder analysis in the context of future design.
4. A context map: preparation and implications for the future design process.
5. Analysis of past changes in the future design process (“looking back to look forward”).
6. Disruption as a driving force of change.
7. System interventions: complication versus complexity, “wicked problems”, how a small action can make a big change.
8. Scenario building: storytelling based on specific knowledge.
The coverage of these aspects will be adapted to the group needs and dynamics of the future design process.
Specific tools and methods presented over this course can be implemented to any complex problem – from policy constructing to career planning.
Type of course
Course coordinators
Learning outcomes
Student understands complex systems and can identify their elements (OS MU: KW01, BIOL MU: KW01 and KW04, BIOTECH MU: KW06, KK01).
Student understands cause and effect relationships in the systems (OŚ MU: KW01, KW02, KW05; BIOL MU: KW01, KW04, BIOTECH MU: KW06, KU07, KK01).
Student predicts impact of various factors on the system functioning (OS MU: KU02, BIOL MU: KU05, BIOTECH MU: KU15).
Student can identify signals and drivers of change in a given topic (OŚ MU: KU02, KK02, BIOL MU: KW18, BIOTECH MU: KW03, KU15)
Student can perform thorough literature research in reliable sources of information, obtain the necessary data and interpret them (OŚ MU: KK09, KU10, BIOL MU: KU04, KU08, KK10, BIOTECH MU: KU03, KU06).
Student can work in group, both as a leader and as a group member (BIOL MU: KU12, BIOTECH MU: KU10).
Has the ability to use English to read scientific literature and communicate with foreigners (OŚ MU: KU03, KU12, BIOL MU: KU03, KU11, Biotech MU: KU02)
Assessment criteria
Oral presentation of a group project.
Workshop attendance is obligatory! During every classes an attendance list will be signed. According to the rules of studying at the University of Warsaw, every student is entitled to 2 unexcused absences.
Bibliography
We recommend to explore the following on-line materials (free of charge):
1. Resources on the website of The Institute for the Future (IFTF): https://www.iftf.org/home/
2. Resources on the website of the Forum for the Future: https://www.thefuturescentre.org/
3. An article “Futures Studies: Theories and Methods” by Sohail Inayatullah: https://www.bbvaopenmind.com/en/articles/futures-studies-theories-and-methods/
4. An article “What is futures thinking?” by Liz Possee Corthell: https://www.madpow.com/insights/2021/1/what-futures-thinking
5. Bengston, D.N. 2017. Ten principles for thinking about the future: a primer for environmental professionals. Gen. Tech. Rep. NRS-175. Newtown Square, PA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station. 28 p. https://doi.org/10.2737/NRS-GTR-175.
6. Carleton, T., Cockayne, W. and Thvanainen A-J. 2013. Playbook for strategic foresight and innovation. http://web.stanford.edu/group/archaeolog/cgi-bin/archaeolog/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Playbook-for-Strategic-Foresight-and-Innovation-US-Stanford.pdf
7. World Business Council for Sustainable Development guide „Futures thinking”: https://docs.wbcsd.org/2017/01/Future_Thinking/1_Futures_Thinking.pdf
Additionally, we recommend a book Skalska Z., Kołodziej R., 2022. Prototyping 2040. Greenhat, Blue media.
During the course, teachers will suggest relevant documents and encourage further web-research.
Additional information
Additional information (registration calendar, class conductors, localization and schedules of classes), might be available in the USOSweb system: