International Planning and Forecasting 2104-M-Z1SIPM
Forecasting in social sciences. Forecasting of the international relations. The birth international forecasting. The information base (international statistics). Methodology of international forecasting. The meaning of prediction analysis in international relations. The use of prediction analysis in decision-making. Forecasting and nature of international relations. Forecasting and planning the foreign policy. Forecasting of threats. Forecasting and international political relations. Forecasting and international economic relations. Overview of approaches to the forecasting. The kinds of projections (long - term, medium - term, short-term; investigative, warning, normative; tactical, operational, strategic). Intuitive methods and experts methods. Extrapolation methods Simulating methods. An analogy method. Quantitative methods in social sciences. The measurement in a study of international relations. The conception of model. Kinds of models. Heuristic and operating models. The use of models in international planning and forecasting. Models of arrangement of powers. Models of equilibrium. Models of polarization. Models of escalation. Models of types of international relations. The logic and dynamics of several models. The conception of scenario and simulation. Simulating use of heuristic models. The conception of decision game. Projections and scenarios and simulations. The application of projections in decision games. Examples of projections, simulation and scenarios. Projections of Club of Roma. The power projections based on heuristic and operating models. Projections of international security. Demographic, economic, social and political projections. Projections of Poland’s future. The relationships among projections and decisions. The uncertainty in decision-making process. Reasons of states and individual and group interests of politicians and experts in decision-making process. The essential and moral responsibility decision-making of politicians and experts.
Type of course
Learning outcomes
basic knowledge of the subject
The understanding of forecasting and planning importance in the field of international relations (economic and political).
The ability to analysis, interpretation and evaluation of plans, strategies and forecasts from the perspective of international decision-making needs. The attitude to the research based on the reliability, accuracy and objectivity. The need to develop independent thinking skills and activities in terms of forecasting and planning.
Assessment criteria
exam
50% active participation in the course, quality of practical assignments delivered, participation in the theoretical discussions in the class based on readings
50% final exam – practical application of one or of the combination of the methods
Bibliography
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