Forecasting and Simulations 2400-M1IiEPiS

General Topics
1. Introduction to forecasting and simulations
2. Uncertainty, error, and quality of forecasts and simulations
3. Key problems and practical Issues in forecasting and simulations

Review of selected methods and models in the context of forecasting and simulations
4. Simple time series forecasting methods and models
5. ARIMA models
6. ADL and ARIMAX models
7. Structural and semistructural models
8. VAR models
9. General equilibrium models
10. The indicator approach (based on the example of economic forecasts)

Estimated student workload: 4 ECTS × 25h = 100h
(K) – contact hours (S) – self-study hours

Classes: 30h (K), 0h (S)
Consultations: 5h (K), 0h (S)
Preparation for classes: 0h (K), 10h (S)
Exam preparation: 0h (K), 15h (S)
Work on course projects: 0h (K), 40h (S)

Total: 35h (K) + 65h (S) = 100h

- Materials provided by the lecturer
- Clements M., D. Hendry (1999): Forecasting economic time series, Cambridge University Press.
- Hendry D., Castle J., Clements M. (2019): Forecasting: An Essential Introduction, Yale University Press.
- Hyndman R., Athanasopoulos G. (2018): Forecasting: principles and practice, OTexts.
- Tetlock P. E., Gardner D. (2017): Superprognozowanie. Sztuka i nauka prognozowania, CeDeWu.

None