Foundations of Qualitative Political Analysis 2102-ANG-L-D2FQPA

Lecture Topics
1. Introduction to Information Analysis Issues – Limitations of Political Analysis (I). Information overproduction as a source of misfortune for information analysts (from The Megabit Bomb by S. Lem to Data Smog by D. Shenk). The problem of Big Data, information overload, media shock. Species-specific limitations of sensory perception. Emotional constraints of analysts: cognitive biases. Analysis of Kahneman’s “noise” as random variability and instability of human judgments. Human memory and mind as cognitive barriers: the concept of anti-knowledge and unknown-unknowns. Social problems caused by unknown-unknowns: Lemon Market. Characteristics of short-term and long-term human memory: Lisa Genova, Elizabeth Loftus, Julia Shaw, Kimberly Wade. Memory errors and artifacts in political analysis.
2. Qualitative Information Analysis – What is information? Identification and analysis of key concepts. Qualitative methods in information analysis. What is present in texts and what is absent? Quality and reflexivity in research. What is discourse? Discourse analysis (including critical discourse analysis). What is coding and thinking “through” codes?
3. Analysis of the Structure of Conspiracy Theories – What are conspiracy theories (CTs)? Psychological and social functions of conspiracy thinking. Methods of narrative analysis, narrative layers. Analysis of the narrative structure of CTs, ideological-theoretical layer, logical- grammatical layer, rhetorical layer.
4. Analysis of (Dis)Information Narratives – The actantial model by Algirdas Julien Greimas – who is the hero, the villain, and the helper in the narrative? Methods of data collection for analysis, media monitoring: X, Twitter, Telegram, building a personal source database. Which narratives matter? Categorization of narratives – quantitative or qualitative approach?
5. Limitations of Political Analysis (II) – Probability in political analysis. Cognitive biases: neglecting probability, gambler’s fallacy, advantage effect. Culture and society as cognitive barriers. Informational and normative conformity. Lynn Hasher – the effect of repetition. From the echo effect to cultural perspectivism (Kaiping Peng and Richard Nisbett). Confirmation bias. “Overton Window” (Joseph P. Overton) and the axis of social acceptance (Joshua Treviño). Language as a flawed tool for describing reality. The hypothesis of linguistic relativity (E. Sapir, B. L. Whorf – the influence of language on perception). The role of metaphors (G. Lakoff – shaping thought through metaphors). Perception and memory of colors and language (J. A. Lucy – linguistic differences in describing colors). The impact of language on memory (E. Loftus – how phrasing affects memory of events). Thinking and language (D. Slobin – the concept of “thinking for speaking”). Language and perception of reality (L. Boroditsky – the influence of grammatical gender on perception). Philosophy of language (F. de Saussure, L. Wittgenstein, J. Derrida – the imprecision of language in describing social reality).
6. Introduction to Classical Qualitative Research Methods – Unstructured interviews, narrative (biographical) interviews. The continuum of interviews by the degree of standardization. In-depth individual and group interviews. Focused individual and group interviews (Focus Group Interviews, FGI). Equipment and operation of FGI labs. Variants of FGI: mini-groups, extended groups, recall groups, dynamic groups (concept labs), affinity groups, dyads, triads, creative groups, and others. Dilemmas in selecting research subjects in qualitative studies. Research stages: preparation, conduction, analysis. Transcription methods.
7. Application of Artificial Intelligence Large Language Models in Political Analysis – Overview of models (families: ChatGPT, Claude, DeepSeek, Gemini, Copilot, YandexGPT, GigaChat, and others). Concepts: Deep Learning, Transformer Model, Tokenization, Hallucinations, Prompting. Model limitations. Security and censorship aspects.
8. Analysis of Visual Materials and Metadata in Political Analysis – Cultural, social, and political aspects of visual materials. Analysis of geographic identifiers and geolocation data. Image data analysis. Politics and cartography – the problem of cartographic censorship based on How to Lie with Maps by M. Monmonier.
9. Methodology of Searching, Categorizing, and Evaluating Information in Surface Web Data Collections – Search engines and open datasets of political and economic information.
10. Disinformation – How to Detect and Handle It? (I) – Definitions and statistics of lying. Stereotypical (and false) indicators of lying. The Ekman-Friesen neurocultural theory. Assessment of verbal statement credibility. Assessment of written statement credibility. Probability theory as a determinant of truth. Stylometry. The art of questioning.
11. Disinformation – How to Detect and Handle It? (II) – How to navigate the post-truth world, or Fake News Detection. The issue of journalistic reliability from a historical perspective. Definitional challenges: Fake News, False News, or Disinformation? The 5W principle in detecting disinformation. Internal and external source criticism. Investigative journalism, leak portals, fact-checking, and OSINT as sources for information analysts.
12. Profiling in Political Analysis – Definition and purpose of profiling in the context of political analysis. Differences between psychological, intelligence, and business profiling. Applications of profiling in politics, election campaigns, and intelligence. The Big Five (OCEAN Model) – how personality traits influence political decisions. Counterintelligence profiling – detecting hidden motivations and intentions. Business profiling.
13. Data Leaks (Leaks/Breaches) as a Game-Changer in Political Analysis – Utilizing leaked data. Case studies: Wikileaks, CryptoMe, Distributed Denial of Secrets.
14. Reporting in Political Analysis – Quality and accessibility assessment systems for information: Journalist Information Rating Systems, OSINT Traffic Light Protocol (TLP), NATO Intelligence Rating System, UK’s National Intelligence Model (NIM), Sherman Kent’s Analytic Confidence Framework.
15. At the Intersection of Quantitative and Qualitative Methods (Varia) – Neurobiological methods. Chi-square in the inference process.
16. Practical GSR Demonstration – Mini-lectures requested by students.

Workshop Topics
1. Introduction to Information Analysis Issues – Limitations of Political Analysis (I). Awareness Test / Gorilla – how holistically do you perceive events? Cognitive Reflection Tests (CRT-3, CRT-7, CRT-12), "pictorial" CRT test. Müller-Lyer illusion, Ponzo illusion, Hermann grid, "Old and Young Woman" image, Ames illusion, Kanizsa triangle, Rotating Mask illusion. Paired game in the Ultimatum Bargaining Game – an exercise in analytical rationality.
2. Qualitative Information Analysis. Case studies, collective discussion. Individual work on an assigned text and searching for hidden elements. Coding methods, text analysis, and coding.
3. Analysis of the Structure of Conspiracy Theories. Case studies, collective discussion. Independent search for conspiracy narratives, collecting material for analysis. Deconstruction of collected narratives.
4. Analysis of (Dis)Information Narratives. Case studies, collective discussion. Designing a narrative research project. Own media monitoring, building a narrative database, initial narrative analysis.
5. Limitations of Political Analysis (II). Practical evaluation and exercises in probability-based thinking: the conjunction fallacy in practice, anchoring effect, framing. Linguistic style as a correlate of social traits: Your "I" Exam: Testing Your Social Vision. Identifying your strengths as a qualitative analyst: Bottle Test – James Pennebaker, The Secret Life of Pronouns. Double linguistic blindness – participants describe a sound (e.g., ocean waves) as if explaining it to someone who has never heard any sound. Then, they reverse the perspective and describe the same sound, imagining they have never heard it themselves. Definition deconstruction – selecting an apparently simple word (e.g., "table") and challenging participants to define it without tautologies, functional references, or visual descriptions. Each definition is confronted with examples revealing its inconsistencies. Reverse translation paradox – passing a complex philosophical sentence through multiple machine translations (5-6 languages) and then returning to the original. The analysis of resulting distortions demonstrates how meaning depends on the language system rather than individual words.
6. Introduction to Classical Qualitative Research and Analysis Methods. Transcription and sentiment analysis using AI LLM.
7. Application of Artificial Intelligence Large Language Models in Political Analysis. Exercises and comparative analysis using selected AI LLM models.
8. Credibility Analysis of Visual Materials and Metadata in Political Analysis. Practical use of Bellingcat OpenStreetSearchMap. Metadata analysis in images. Evaluation of photo and video credibility (technical and socio-political aspects).
9. Methodology of Searching, Categorizing, and Evaluating Information in Surface Web Data Collections. Practical exercises in searching and assessing data using various local and global search engines. Introduction to OCCRP – Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project.
10. Disinformation – How to Detect and Handle It? (I). Pair exercises – detecting deception in verbal-vocal and visual domains. Mafia game.
11. Disinformation – How to Detect and Handle It? (II). Plugins supporting disinformation detection: Web of Trust, Netcraft, SEOQuake, KnowNews, CertificateInfo, Stopaganda Plus, Media Bias Fact Check. AI as the new generation of journalists: Nooz.ai, NewsGPT The Unhuman Truth, UseClarity.
12. Profiling in Political Analysis. Big Five Personality self-test. Practical exercises in evaluation – creating a profile of a fictional (movie or book) character, creating a profile of a politician/celebrity.
13. Data Leaks (Leaks/Breaches) as a Game-Changer in Political Analysis. Exercises using: SQLite Studio, Everything, GrepWin.
14. Reporting in Political Analysis. Case studies of classical reports. Working with: Canva AI, Draw.io, Maltego.
15. Practical Exercises with the Chi-Square Coefficient and Cramér’s V.
16. Test. Review and discussion of test results.

Term 2024L:

LECTURES + GROUP DISCUSSION MODULE
1) Assumptions of qualitative research 1: social phenomena vs variables; specificity vs generalisation
Reading:
• Merriam, B., & E. Tisdell. (2016). What is qualitative research? In: Qualitative Research : A Guide to Design and Implementation (pp. 5-21 only)

2) Assumptions of qualitative research 2: understanding vs explaining; subjective vs objective perspective
Reading:
• Creswell, J. W. (2007). Qualitative Inquiry and Research Design. Choosing Among Five Approaches (pp. 35-41 only)

3) Assumptions of qualitative research 3: small q studies vs large Q studies - positivist and antipositivist approach in qualitative research; inductive vs deductive approach
Reading:
• McNabb, D. E. (2010). Research Methods for Political Science: quantitative and qualitative approaches. Routledge (pp. 225-232 only)

4) What is a research problem? What makes a question a good research question for qualitative study? Research problems and typical perspectives in qualitative research. The role of context in understanding phenomena
Reading:
• Creswell, J. W. (2007). Qualitative Inquiry and Research Design. Choosing Among Five Approaches, Chapter 6

5) Single case study. Spaces, places and political events as objects of political research. Observation and participatory methods
Reading:
• McNabb, D. E. (2010). Research Methods for Political Science: quantitative and qualitative approaches. Routledge, Chapter 17
• Jahoda, M., Lazarsfeld, P. F., & Zeisel, H. (2017). Marienthal: The sociography of an unemployed community. Routledge. Please skim intro pp 1-10, pp. 36-39, pp 45+, pp 52-55.

6) Research ethics. Power asymmetry in research project. Informed consent. Data management and protection. Anonymity
Reading:
• Babbie, E. (2010). The Basics of Social Research (Belmont, CA: Wadsworth), Chapter 3

7) Non-comparative small N studies. People and their experiences as objects of political research. Individual in-depth interviews
Reading:
• Entries “Interviewing” (pp.470-472), “Structured Interview” (pp.837-838), “Unstructured Interview” (p 907), “In-depth Interview” (p. 422) In: The Sage Encyclopedia of Qualitative Research Methods, Give, L. (ed.), Sage 2008.

8) Non-comparative small N studies. People and their political attitudes as objects of political research. Sampling for qualitative research. Focus groups
Reading:
• Babbie, E. (2010). The Basics of Social Research (Belmont, CA: Wadsworth), on sampling and on interviewing, pp. 206-210 & 339-344

9) Content analysis in practice: what gets coded, how to code, first and second cycle coding
Reading:
• Schreier, M. (2012). Qualitative content analysis in practice. Sage publications, pp 106-125
• McNabb, D. E. (2010). Research Methods for Political Science: quantitative and qualitative approaches. Routledge, Chapter 21

10) Media analysis and political communication as objects of political research
Reading:
• Schreier, M. (2012). Qualitative content analysis in practice. Sage publications, pp .1-20.

11) Political communication and discourse as objects of political research 2. Discourse analysis. Text sampling for discourse analysis
• M. Reisgl, The Discourse-Historical Approach. In: The Routledge Handbook of Critical Discourse Studies, J. Flowerdew, J. Richardson (eds.)

12) Comparative small N studies. Institutions as objects of political research. Triangulation and mixed methods
This topic builds on the theme of comparative studies you had in the course “Introduction to political research” It’s recommended to go through Haperin’s chapter 9 you’ve read for that course
13) Legislative and legal analysis for political science
Reading:
• McConville, M. (2007). Research methods for law (Vol. 104). W. H. Chui (Ed.). Edinburgh: Edinburgh University Press, Chapter 1 Qualitative Legal Research

WORKSHOP MODULE
Reading: selected parts of: J. Saldana (2013), Coding Manual for Qualitative Researchers
1)
Designing own research project: content/thematic analysis of political text
2)
Retrieving, sampling, organizing text for analysis
3)
Deductive coding. Content analysis
4)
Inductive coding. 1st cycle coding. Coding procedures. Memos
5)
1st cycle of coding. Developing codes. Constructive and reflexive approach
6)
2nd cycle of coding. Developing themes/categories
7)
Text retrieval. From codes and memos to a research paper. Quoting, arguing, interpreting, synthesising
8) Presentations and discussion

Prerequisites (description)

Students understand basic terms of political science Students have basic knowledge about social research methods

Course coordinators

Daniel Mider

Learning outcomes

- Zdolność do rozpoznania, wyjaśnienia i prognozowania zjawisk politycznych (K_K01).
- Umiejętność analizy zasad systemów politycznych i społęcznych (K_K02).
- Stosowanie teorii i metodologii badawczej w diagnostyce zjawisk politycznych (K_K03).
- Analiza mnikro- i makrostruktur politycznych i zmian globalnych (K_U05).
- Zrozumienie funkcjonowania systemów politycznych na poziomie krajowym i międzynarodowym (K_U06).
- Rozumienie kultury politycznej, jednostek, społeczeństw i decydentów oraz historycznego kontekstu (K_U07).
- Świadomość trendów we współczesnej myśli politycznej i filozofii politycznej (K_U08).

Assessment criteria

1. Mandatory attendance - maximum of 3 absences allowed (2 for lectures, 1 for workshop).
2. Test during the final class (70% of the grade).
3. Report - on profiling or another chosen aspect (30% of the grade). Both elements, i.e., test (passed with a positive grade) and report (evaluated positively), are required to obtain the final grade.

Practical placement

Bibliography

J.R. Heuer. The Psychology of Intelligence Analysis. Central Intelligence Agency, 1999.
B. Fischhoff, C. Chauvin (Eds.). Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations. National Academies Press, 2011.
J. Lofland, D. A. Snow, L. Anderson, L. H. Lofland, Analyzing social settings: A guide to qualitative observation and analysis. Waveland Press, 2022.
J. Flowerdew, J. E. Richardson, eds. The Routledge handbook of critical discourse studies. London: Routledge, 2018.
T. Rapley, Doing conversation, discourse and document analysis, SAGE Publications Ltd, 2021.

Term 2024L:

• Creswell, J. W. (2007). Qualitative Inquiry and Research Design. Choosing Among Five Approaches
• McNabb, D. E. (2010). Research Methods for Political Science: quantitative and qualitative approaches. Routledge

Notes

Term 2024L:

Additional information

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